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First Advance Estimates of National Income of India for the Financial Year 2019-20
The National Statistics Office (NSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation has released the first advance estimates of India’s national income for the current financial year both at constant prices (2011-12) and current prices. The main points related to these estimates are mentioned below:
Estimates at constant prices (2011-12)
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Real GDP or GDP at constant prices (2011-12) is estimated to be Rs 147.79 lakh crore in FY 2019-20, while the provisional estimate of GDP for FY 2018-19 was Rs 140.78 lakh crore.
The actual growth rate of GDP in FY 2019-20 is estimated to be 5.0 percent, while the GDP growth rate was 6.8 percent in FY 2018-19.
- Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic or Basic Prices
The actual GVA at basic or basic prices is estimated to increase to Rs 135.40 lakh crore in the current financial year as against Rs 129.07 lakh crore in the financial year 2018-19.
Therefore, the growth rate of real GVA is estimated to be 4.9 percent in the year 2019-20 as compared to 6.6 percent in the previous financial year.
Economic activities that have recorded growth rates of more than 4.9 percent include electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services’; ‘Business, Hotel, Transport, Communication, and Broadcasting Services’; ‘Financial, Immovable Property and Professional Services’ and ‘Public Administration, Defense, and other services’.
The growth rates of these services are estimated at 5.4, 5.9, 6.4, and 9.1 percent respectively. The growth rates of ‘agriculture, forestry and fisheries’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’ and ‘manufacturing‘ are estimated to be 2.8, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.2 percent respectively.
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- Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries
The growth rate of GVA related to this sector at basic or basic prices is estimated to be 2.8 percent in FY 2019-20 as against 2.9 percent in FY 2018-19.
Crops including fruits and vegetables accounted for about 56 percent, livestock products 30 percent, and forestry and fisheries 14 percent of the total GVA of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector.
- Mining and quarrying
The growth rate of GVA related to this sector at basic or basic prices is estimated to be 1.5 percent in FY 2019-20, as against 1.3 percent in FY 2018-19.
Important indicators of the mining sector, ie, production of coal, crude oil, and natural gas registered growth rates of (-) 5.3, (-) 5.9, and (-) 2.6 percent respectively during the April-November period of FY 2019-20.
Whereas during the April-November period of FY 2018-19, these rates were recorded at 9.0, (-) 3.6, and (-) 0.7 percent respectively.
The Industrial Production Index (IIP) of metallic minerals registered a growth of 13.7 percent during April-October, 2019-20, as against 2.6 percent during the same period of 2018-10.
- Manufacturing
The growth rate of GVA related to this sector at basic prices is estimated to be 2.0 percent in FY 2019-20 as against 6.9 percent in FY 2018-19. IIP manufacturing has registered a growth rate of 0.6 percent in April-October, 2019-20.
- Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services
The growth rate of GVA related to this sector at basic or basic prices is estimated to be 5.4 percent in FY 2019-20 as against 7.0 percent in FY 2018-19.
Important indicators of this sector, viz. Power IIP has registered a growth rate of 1.6 percent in April-October, 2019-20.
- Construction
The growth rate of GVA related to this sector at basic prices was recorded at 3.2 percent in FY 2019-20 as against 8.7 percent in FY 2018-19.
Important indicators of the construction sector such as cement production and finished steel consumption have registered growth of (-) 0.02 and 3.5 percent respectively during April-November 2019-20.
- Per capita income
In the real sense (at 2011-12 prices), per capita income is estimated to increase to Rs 96,563 during FY 2019-20 as against Rs 92,565 in FY 2018-19.
During the financial year 2019-20, the growth rate of per capita income is estimated to be 4.3 percent as against 5.6 percent in the previous year.
- Estimates at current prices
In FY 2019-20, GDP at current prices is estimated to reach a level of Rs 204.42 lakh crore, while in FY 2018-19, this figure was estimated at Rs 190.10 lakh crore. Thus, it represents a GDP growth rate of 7.5 percent during FY 2019-20.
- National income
The nominal net national income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices), is projected to increase to Rs 181.10 lakh crore during FY 2019-20, while in FY 2018-19 This figure was Rs 168.37 lakh crore.
The growth rate of national income is estimated to be 7.6 percent in the financial year 2019-20 as compared to 11.3 percent in the previous year.
- Per capita income
The per capita net national income is estimated to be Rs 1,35,050 during FY 2019-20, which is 6.8 percent higher than Rs 1,26,406 in FY 2018-19. The growth rate of per capita net national income during the financial year 2018-19 was 10.0 percent.